Easter Monday 2020 Bulletin St Mary’s

Dear Friends,
The Lord is risen, alleluia!
All your clergy at St Mary’s give thanks for a very ‘special’ Easter Triduum 2020. Despite being locked up and deprived of your presence in the pews, we know that the beautiful liturgies offered at St Mary’s by our dedicated team of resident clerics and laymen were followed by thousands worlwide. This has been a great opportunity for many people not familiar with the traditional liturgy to experience it. We hope to have the full Triduum ceremonies uploaded for permanent access later on. 
See further below some of the messages received.

Support St Mary’s Shrine:
Thank you to all of you who gave us money to support us in these difficult times. 
Please use our bank account details below for online donations, or our PayPal button specifying ‘Warrington’.
https://fssp.co.uk/donate/
Please tell your friends who discovered LiveMass about these means to support us.

For FSSP Warrington
Bank Name: Lloyds Bank
Sort Code: 30-80-27
Account number: 30993368
Account name: FSSP Warrington

For international transfers, you may also need:

Bank Branch: Palmerston Rd Southsea
Bank Address: Ariel House, 2138 Coventry Road, Sheldon, B26 3JW
IBAN: GB97LOYD30802730993368
SWIFT code: LOYDGB21721

We waited until now to hear the Governement’s review announced for today after three weeks of lockdown. Apparently there will be no announcement until Thursday. Thus, the current restrictions to church access remain the same. However, with every precautions taken, we will not turn down individual requests for Confession (if you travel by car, please park outside Unit 3 of Priory Court).

Please check our website later this week for any update on our LiveMass scheduling.

• Sunday 19 April, probably at 5pm, Vespers with Divine Mercy Chaplet, plus Benediction.
• Daily Mass 12:10pm (often Sung or even Solemn).

Holy Mass intentions:
(Many other Masses are offered daily by the priests.)

The BBC confirmed earlier that many of the deaths ascribed to Coronavirus are caused by other medical conditions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654. This significantly lowers the Coronavirus death rate:

“Is coronavirus causing the deaths?

The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body – because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported. But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death. It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else. Most people who die with coronavirus have an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or diabetes, that may be more of a factor.”

Deacon Roger Gilbride, FSSP will be back for a First Mass in September!
Our dear Deacon flew back to New Zealand earlier than planned to prepare for his priestly ordination scheduled on 20th June, God willing. He wrote: 
“Dear St Mary’s faithful,
As some of you may have heard already, I have returned to New Zealand this week. Due to the ever worsening global situation caused by the corona virus anxiety, two weeks ago I was encouraged by my family and the FSSP priests in Australia to return to New Zealand as soon as possible.  My response was that I will finish my pastoral placement in Warrington and then decide what to do after Easter.
Since then however, both the UK and New Zealand have gone into strict lockdowns. New Zealand is rapidly becoming entirely cut off from the rest of the world (more so than usual !) and there are only a few flights per week now.  The priests in Australia and New Zealand were insistent that if I do not return immediately I may not be able to for several months, since commercial flights will soon stop or become prohibitively expensive.  My flight to Auckland was only 20% full; obviously this is not sustainable for the airlines.
While it is sad that I could not say farewell to everyone, thankfully the FSSP bought me a return flight to Manchester. So, I will be coming back – probably in September – to offer a first Mass and say farewell properly.
I am very glad that I got to know you all over the past months and I would like to thank all of you who contribute so much to the life of the shrine, and especially I’d like to thank the priests, my confreres, for the past 5 months.
Please keep Deacon Thomas Sofatzis and I in your prayers as we prepare for ordination. The planned date of June 20th is unlikely now, since the lockdown in Australia will continue until June 24th. We, therefore, have to find a new date.
May God bless you all as you prepare for Holy Week.
Deacon Gilbride, FSSP”

LiveMass messages:

Monday 13 April, Italy
I just wanted to add my message of thanks to those you have already received. It has been a joy to follow your Triduum from here in Italy and your livemass.net coverage has been of great comfort to me in these difficult times. God bless you all.

Easter Sunday 12 April 2020, England
Dear Father
Happy Easter to all our pastors at St Mary’s and I hope you have had a good day with lots of Easter treats after the Lenten observances. Thank you most sincerely for the wonderful liturgy we have been blessed to unite ourselves with on LiveMass, it has made the loss of our freedom to worship so much easier to bear, although it is very sad to see the empty pews in our beautiful church. I have seen some very appreciative comments on line about the live services Father, so praying that many more people will continue to watch long after the pandemic is over and that the shrine will receive much support. 
God bless Father … Praying that these dreadful times will soon be over and we can all be together again to praise God. Laudetur Jesus Christus, N.

Easter Sunday 12 April 2020, South Africa
Subject: Easter vigil
Message: I would like to thank everyone involved with the Easter vigil mass on LiveMass.org it was absolutely beautiful. Thank you. Regards, C., South Africa.

Easter Sunday 12 April 2020, USA
Dear Father, I attended the live streamed Easter Vigil Mass celebrated at St. Mary’s in Warrington last night, as my FSSP parish in the U.S. was not permitted to celebrate public Masses and referred us to LiveMass.net. It was the first traditional Vigil Mass I have attended, and I wanted to tell you how, even though streamed into my home, and not being able to be physically present, it was so edifying, so beautiful, so fulfilling, and when the candles were extinguished and the lights came on and those bells were rung – oh the bells! – I literally had tears streaming down my face at how they so exuberantly expressed “He is Risen!!”
I wanted to thank you for sharing your Masses during this trying time, and may God abundantly bless you and all of the FSSP priests who so faithfully celebrate the Mass of the ages.
Your daughter in Christ, J.

3/4/2020
Dear Father,
One of the blessings of the current internment is that we have been encouraged to attend Holy Mass vicariously every day in Warrington, although we live in the South of England, many miles away. We’re able to benefit from many more sermons than we get going to mass mainly on Sundays in B.
Both are benefits which ordinary traditional Catholic would benefit from. Sometimes we need a crisis to push people like me to take advantage of something which has existed for some time. God Bless Father & all in the Priory & Keep it up

3 April 2020
Dear Fathers,
I am glad you received my email and that the sound was restored.
Thank you for such a beautiful homily today 3 April on the Stabat Mater Dolorosa.
Your insight on the verses was very meaningful to me. I love your mass as it is a joy to participate in what I consider a higher form of worship than that which is in most Catholic Churches today. (My husband and I normally attend a Latin mass in our area but almost an hour away). I am in my early 70’s and remember Latin masses of my childhood. I studied Latin in high school and remember it well.  I want you to know I follow each mass with my missal (1962), praying the Latin with you and responding with the server. I am happy you have made this available to us. It is a great blessing!
I look forward to participating with you all especially through the Easter Holy Week as well.
May God bless you and keep you safe. C. C…, USA

2 April 2020
Dear Fathers,
I write from the United States with gratitude to Our Lord and Our Lady. The greatest blessing of the “pandemic” is to have found your celebrations of Mass. Thank you for the thought-filled and inspired sermons — you are so clearly “reaching out” to comfort and give the strong spiritual guidance we are craving.  I feel so much of a sense of “union and presence” and for the first time I am making a true Spiritual Communion and being sustained by it.
Passion Sunday was moving beyond words… I great hope for a blessed Holy Week, Triduum and joyous Easter in union with you and the Church.
I am with you every morning at 7:10 a.m. EST and when I can once again be present at Mass in person at my own parish I know that St. Mary’s Shrine will continue to be part of my days.

01/04/2020, USA
Dear FSSP Fathers:
Thank you so much for the Solemn High Mass broadcast this Passion Sunday. I am marooned here in the US under virtual lockdown, and it was wonderful to see the Holy Sacrifice with full ceremonial in your beautiful shrine. I hope that it will be possible to have sung daily Masses, if your circumstances permit. There’s nothing like it available elsewhere that I know of.

31 March 2020, USA
Dear Fathers,
I am writing to tell you how much I value your daily for Catholics to pray the traditional Latin Mass. I attend the Chapel of the … in N., USA. It is under the pastoral care of the FSSP where we have a traditional Latin Mass once a week on Sundays.
Since the lock down started due to the Virus, I have set aside a small part if my day to pray and view your daily Latin Masses. I plan to continue my devotions when we are delivered from the virus. I do have multiple health problems that make me fatigued at times.  Knowing that Live Mass.Net and particularly, St. Mary’s is on-line is truly a blessing.
God bless you all. Stay well.

31 March 2020
Hello Fathers! 
Greetings from …, Texas! First of all I’d like to thank you for your amazing ministry through LiveMass! In the midst of all the chaos in the world, y’all are truly a light in the darkness, a calm in the storm, to all of us in this difficult time.
As we were waiting for the (virtual) Holy Mass to begin in Sarasota this past Sunday (your 6am Mass is a little early for my 3 little ones!), we were blessed to be able to join you in Warrington for the Litany of Loreto, arranged so beautifully!

“20 March 2020: To our dear priests in Warrington,
Thank you so much for your beautiful liturgical celebrations in the past week, as always. Please be assured that although we are miles apart, we are all united with you in spirit every day. No pressure, but we eagerly await each homily for more spiritual guidance in these extraordinary times! Livemass is an amazing tool for good. And thank you for a beautiful polyphonic litany today for Our Lady! We filled the whole house with it from our little family “altar” where we have rigged up a screen linked to a laptop and speaker.” 

29 March 2020, England
Dear Fathers,
I just wanted to thank you for the wonderful opportunity to ‘attend’ Masses at St Mary’s Shrine through livemass.net. You probably don’t remember me, but my wife and I joined you at Liverpool Art Gallery for your talk on the youth in art in 2016. It is great to be able to feel like part of your parish through the internet.
I am usually a parishioner of St … in …, a Novus Ordo Parish with a traditional Parish Priest, Fr …, who has introduced a first Friday Latin Mass to our Church.
Below is a picture of the St… branch of FSSP Warrington!

29 March 2020, USA
Thank you for broadcasting the traditional Latin Mass from Warrington, England. When you mentioned a musical rosary in the announcements today, you piqued my interest. Not only did I watch the Mass but followed along for the rosary. The organ accompaniment and chant were beautiful!

29 March 2020
Blessed Passion Sunday, I am a lifelong Catholic senior watching your mass online everyday from USA! I love your church and wish I could visit in person sometime. The Tridentine mass is as important to me as it was to St. Pio. With much gratitude to you all+++Can you tell me how it would be best to donate to your FSSP church in Warrington? I am not sure what method is best.
Thank you

29 March 2020
Deo Gratias! I am writing from Canada during the corona virus pandemic. I thank God for leading me to your church so that I can join in the celebration of the Eucharist! I have wept during the celebration and will always remember your beautiful church and priests in my prayers.

29 March 2020
Dear Dear Fathers,
Sincere thanks to you from the United States for your beautiful celebrations of the Holy Sacrifice of the Mass and for your profound and stirring homilies.  I can’t wait to get up in the morning to hear Mass online!
I live in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, so I guess we’re also “Lancashire men!”  From what I hear, that is where the Pilgrimage of Grace began.
God bless you and keep you all in good health.

27 March 2020
Dear Priests of St. Mary’s – During the quarantine, I have been attending your daily mass through LiveMass.net. Thank you!  And thank you for your beautiful priesthood and witness!  You are such a blessing to me and my family. I am lifting you and the FSSP in prayer. Even when public masses aren’t suspended, it is a real hardship and sacrifice to attend the TLM. My family and I drive 2-3 hours round trip every Sunday to attend the TLM and can rarely attend a weekday TLM since the only option is a 4-5 hour drive round trip.  My diocese is in apostasy, and I am surrounded by anything-goes NOM. I am very encouraged to know that even when public masses are restored, I can unite myself to the TLM during the week through LiveMass. My husband and I have also made a donation to support LiveMass.
I believe one fruit (among others) of this time will be more people drawn to the tradition of the Church. I have introduced my friends to you through LiveMass and have encouraged them to experience the TLM and the beautiful priests of FSSP.  I’m sure others are doing the same. Thank you for maintaining the beauty and tradition, especially during these uncertain times, with excellent homilies, chant, and prayers following mass.
Praised be Jesus Christ!
Virgo Potens, Ora pro nobis!
Yours in Christ, X. (MI U.S.A.)

[From a professional media person in the UK, 25 March 2020]:
 
Btw, having watched all the live streamings on Sunday l was very impressed with the Livemass streaming. It was by far the most professional looking having more than one camera and was clearly filmed by someone who understood the Mass. I think you may have been the only livestream with an organ which was a great joy to hear on such a strange day and of course the day in Lent when normally the organ can be heard. 
 
Keep up the good work because this is a lifeline to many Catholics at the moment and l think for many it will be a revelation to see the Latin Mass celebrated so beautifully. 

25 March 2020, Texas USA
I’ve been watching your Live Mass during the suspension of the Mass here in Dallas. Thank you for providing this service to the world. May God bless you and the other priests at Warrington FSSP for the work that they do.

25/03/2020 England
Thank you so much for providing Mass for us each day on Livemass.net. I can’t tell you how much we appreciate it. We lost the last 10 minutes or so today and on Saturday last…..it seemed to move to a live Mass from Florida….presumably because the Mass at Warrington had exceeded its normal time slot. Still we are not complaining. We are so fortunate to have access to it.

From Malaysia, 26/03/2020:
I am very much grateful to the fact that St Mary’s Shrine, Warrington streams Masses everyday – and it certainly has allowed me to follow Masses with my Missal, and this has given me encouragement as I am confined at home under these lock-down measures due to the spread of the Coronavirus.

24 March 2020, England
Thankyou for installing the iMass , it’s been lovely to attend mass and say a spiritual communion, at this uncertain times.

24/03/2020, England
Dear Father, Just a quick ”Thank You” from all of us to all of you and also to the Live Mass team for providing this spiritual lifeline.
Sunday was painful without actual attendance at Holy Mass, but it was nevertheless a beautiful grace to pray vie the livestream.
The hard work, including the synchronisation of cameras on stained glass with key points in the splendid sermon was appreciated.

“Dear Fathers, thank you for the Live Mass today [Sunday 22 March] on Internet! I was able to follow the Mass in Warrington from W. this morning. Good to know you’ve been prepared with this website for a few years. Also happy to see you both, even in such circumstances.”

England, 24/03/2020: from a family
“Dear Fathers, I just wanted to thank you for your wonderful initiative in live streaming the Holy Mass. These are difficult times for us all and as your said in your sermon, we should be not satisfied with attending the Mass in this way. However, you are providing great comfort for many families globally in doing so. And what a beautiful church! God Bless, A., M. and …family.”

England, 24/03/2020
“Dear Fr …, A quick message to thank you for the amazing LiveMass transmissions. I followed for St Joseph, St Benedict and now Laetare – quite surreal (and sad) to see you sprinkling row upon row of empty pews! I must say the quality is superb and it is a wonderful resource to have in these extraordinary times (I’ve sent a small donation to LiveMass.net). God bless, J.”

by Fr AM

Easter in lockdown – a Sermon

A monk of my acquaintance once drily remarked, as he looked across at the banks of gloomy faces in the choir stalls opposite, that he sometimes doubted the Resurrection had really happened.

The point is well made. It can be easier in a way, for us Catholics, to identify with Lent and Passiontide than with Easter. Even if we haven’t kept our Lenten resolutions as well as we would have liked, we still relate more readily to the themes of penance and punishment, sacrifice, suffering, and death, than we do to joy and peace and new life.

And there is good reason for this. Suffering and anguish is ever present in our world – no one is spared it, to one degree or another, just as all will certainly undergo the sentence of death. But joy, when it comes, tends to be more fleeting, rapidly overshadowed by some difficulty. There is a risk that Easter, for us, becomes little more than a natural consolation, a merely temporary respite from gloom, when we are allowed to break the fast, put out flowers, and eat chocolate – with little sense of something life-transforming.

Perhaps this seems all the more the case now of all times, when the present pandemic continues to overwhelm just about the whole globe; and does not appear to be ceasing for the commemoration of Our Lord’s Resurrection. Indeed, we are denied even the consolation of celebrating Easter by attending the sacred rites.

And yet Our Lord has truly risen – and we must, we must, allow this glorious truth somehow to penetrate our lives.

There can be little doubt that the coronavirus pandemic is a divine chastisement. This really ought to be an uncontroversial statement, but it seems there is no shortage of people, even senior churchmen, to deny it. No doubt this ultimately springs from a loss of the sense of the supernatural, the recognition that God is the cause of all things whatsoever; but perhaps in part it is motivated by a false understanding of God’s love and mercy (“a loving God would never do that…”). And perhaps even more there is the anxiety that if we say God is punishing for sin, then we must ask, ‘which sin?’; and then it amounts to saying that those who die from the virus are the most guilty of that sin, that they apparently ‘deserved it’.

But that’s not really the case. Firstly, to us Catholics, it should come as no surprise if chastisement is visited upon a whole people collectively, or if the innocent are asked to suffer on behalf of the guilty. After all, both these aspects are precisely the themes of Holy Week. Your clergy have been reciting, in the Divine Office, the prophecies of Jeremiah, warning of the wrath upon Israel, the exile into Babylon, and the destruction of the temple – culminating in his haunting lamentations that are sung in the Office of Tenebrae during the Triduum. And then on Good Friday, we looked at Our Saviour upon the cross, He who was without sin accepting the terrible price for the redemption of sinners.

As to which sin God is chastising us for – well, there will always be the temptation to name our ‘favourite’, whichever of the innumerable manifold vices and perversions of fallen human nature pique our interest. There is more than enough to choose from in the secular society: abortion, euthanasia, same-sex “marriage”, gender ideology, human trafficking… the list goes on and on. Or there is the spread of false religions or militant atheistic ideologies. And then within the Church we can make another catalogue: clerical sexual abuse, rampant heresy, disobedience, and schism, disregard of Sundays and holy days, liturgical abuses, widespread impurity, indifference and faithlessness, sacrilegious Communions, badly made confessions (if made at all), and so on. It seems foolish to try and identify just one that is the cause of all our ills. But all of these things eventually boil down to one – the rejection of and failure to worship the One True God. And for this, our collective punishment is long overdue.

And in reality, all of these faults put together pale into insignificance next to but a single act of sacrilege or idolatry. We do not tend to feel it is so – but God’s view is not our view. God tends to punish precisely by abandoning the people to what they have craved. So in a world that elevates individualism over communal responsibility, perhaps it is fitting that there should be enforced ‘social distancing’; and if,  as I suggest, everything is ultimately about our failure to give God right worship, then we should not be surprised if we Catholics have to bear our brunt of the chastisement in our very particular way – the cessation of public Masses (and even, in some places – horribile dictu – of all the sacraments).

In fact, in a sense, this is the worst of the curses. To say this may seem to be incredibly cold and indifferent given the very real pain, suffering, and loss that many are going through at this time because of the virus, not to mention the horrific economic fallout. I do not mean in any way to diminish this. But we should recognise that man’s purpose and fulfilment lies precisely in the worship of God. We are more than the body only, and there is more than this life only.

This is felt all the more keenly precisely by those who are the most devout, who we would think least ‘deserve’ it, since they want to offer God fitting worship and are struck by its loss the most acutely. But it was ever thus. The prophets warned Jerusalem of what was coming and wept for it, while the hierarchy repeated complacent, empty mantras: “peace, peace, but there is no peace” (Jer. 6:14; cf Ez. 13:10), or “we have the temple” – then even this consolation was taken away from them (Jer. 7:4).

Israel had gone after false gods; and then the True God withdrew from them.

Probably this Easter many will feel much like Psalm 136: “by the waters of Babylon, there we sat and wept when we remembered Sion…how shall we sing the song of the Lord in a strange land?”

And yet, the Babylonian exile was not forever. Israel was restored – at least in part – and the temple was rebuilt. And all this was for a sign of the death and Resurrection of Our Blessed Lord. Ecce, omnia nova facio (Rev. 21:5). Death is not the final word; Christ has claimed victory, and it is decisive.

Thus there can be joy, even in the midst of distress and bewilderment. It is not a transient sentiment, but a deep conviction that stems from faith of the love that God has for us, a love proved dramatically on Calvary. This joy does not simply happen on its own: it can and must be cultivated, through acts of faith and above all charity.

This present moment too shall pass. But will our lessons have been learned? Divine chastisement is never a matter of an angry God fulfilling a lust for vengeance. It is a correction; and as a correction, it is a loving act of mercy, a means by which God draws us back to Him. For our part, we should not be longing for things to ‘return to normal’, but rather seeing where we need a true conversion of heart.

Is this not the message of St Paul? “For if we have been planted together in the likeness of his death, we shall be also in the likeness of his resurrection. Knowing this, that our old man is crucified with him, that the body of sin may be destroyed, to the end that we may serve sin no longer” (Rom. 6:5-6); and: “Therefore if you be risen with Christ, seek the things that are above, where Christ is sitting at the right hand of God. Mind the things that are above, not the things that are upon the earth. For you are dead: and your life is hid with Christ in God.  When Christ shall appear, who is your life, then you also shall appear with him in glory” (Col.3:1-3).

May we never again take the Holy Mass for granted! May we come to treasure anew the beautiful gift of the Sacraments. Let us prepare well to make good, humble confessions, and approach the Holy Eucharist with awe. Let us resolve above all to pray always, with thanks in our hearts, and to take every opportunity to give to Almighty God the adoration that is owed to Him.

And if we do this, the mystery of Easter will have truly penetrated our lives, and the joy of the Risen Christ will be in us – and no one can take this away.

May God bless you, and Our Lady keep you.

by Fr SP

Tenebrae booklets online

To download the full liturgical texts for Tenebrae, three booklets are available by clicking on the link right under each image below.

Please note, all these prayers, without the chant notation, are also available in the Baronius Hand Missal [for sale at St Mary’s Shrine] on pages 1778, 1811 & 1842 for the respective days of the Triduum.

Follow the choral singing of Tenebrae from St Mary’s Warrington via LiveMass.net on 9th, 10th and 11th April 2020, from 10am to 12noon.

by Fr AM

Men’s Talk 8pm tonight

Our FSSP Warrington weekly Men’s Group will meet via LiveMass this evening, Wednesday 8th April, at 8:00pm (Warrington UK time), for a Lenten meditation by Fr de Malleray, FSSP on ‘The Cross and the Mass’ followed by choral singing of Compline. 😇
https://www.livemass.net/

by Fr AM

Blessing LiveMass Warrington cameras!

Our LiveMass equipment has been working satisfactorily daily for years, but your prayer will help!
Our apologies to any viewers for the loss of sound for the first part of holy Mass on Palm Sunday; we were having technical issues following a loss of power earlier in the week which meant that we had to restart the equipment during holy Mass.
Some of our local people were communicating live on WhatsApp and, finding that all of them had lost the sound simultaneously, decided to pray the Prayer to St Michael, soon to hear the sound was back…
We blessed the LiveMass control room and the three cameras after Vespers yesterday (picture).

Please support LiveMass Warrington here: https://fssp.co.uk/bank-details-for-fssp-warrington/

by Fr AM

SOLEMN HOLY WEEK 2020 at ST MARY’S SHRINE via www.livemass.net

(All liturgies behind closed doors – Covid-19 Lockdown Version 9th April 2020)

Times are given as local UK time zone, that is, Greenwich Meridian Time + 1 hr [due to summer time]

All liturgies are according to the Holy Week reformed under Pope Pius XII, currently in force as part of the 1962 Roman missal.

Location: Buttermarket Street, Warrington WA1 2NS, Cheshire, England

Website: fssp.co.uk/warrington

SUPPORT our SHRINE: https://fssp.co.uk/bank-details-for-fssp-warrington/

Palm Sunday, 5 April

11:00am-12:30pm Solemn High Mass with blessing of Palms and Procession

Maundy Thursday, 9 April

10am-12:00noon Tenebrӕ: Gregorian chant (click here to open the booklet)

8:00pm-9:30pm Solemn Mass:

9:30pm-midnight: Eucharistic adoration

Good Friday, 10 April – Fast & Abstinence

10am-11:40am Tenebrӕ: Gregorian chant  (click here to open the booklet)

3:00pm-5:00pm Solemn Liturgy

Holy Saturday, 11 April

10am-11:40am Tenebrӕ: Gregorian chant (click here to open the booklet)

8:00pm-midnight Solemn Easter Vigil followed by Solemn Mass 

(The Easter Vigil will begin at sunset and will end by 11pm):

Easter Sunday, 12 April 

11:00am-12:30pm Solemn High Mass

[Attention: No 6pm Sunday Mass. Normal daily schedule resumes on Monday 13 April, subject to Covid-19 restrictions being lifted.]

by Fr AM

LiveMass connection

Dear Friends, try for weekdays: http://s3.amazonaws.com/livemass/warrington/warrington-mass-of-the-day.html

if https://www.livemass.net/warrington/index.html does not work.

And try for Sundays: http://s3.amazonaws.com/livemass/warrington/index.html

Listen to the polyphonic litany of Loreto sung by the FSSP here: https://youtu.be/pp0CMz9hd1k .

Support St Mary’s Shrine as a broadcast site via bank transfer:

For FSSP Warrington
Bank Name: Lloyds Bank
Sort Code: 30-80-27
Account number: 30993368
Account name: FSSP Warrington

For international transfers, you may also need:

Bank Branch: Palmerston Rd Southsea
Bank Address: Ariel House, 2138 Coventry Road, Sheldon, B26 3JW
IBAN: GB97LOYD30802730993368
SWIFT code: LOYDGB21721

More feedback from First Passion Sunday:

29 March 2020, USA

Thank you for broadcasting the traditional Latin Mass from Warrington, England. When you mentioned a musical rosary in the announcements today, you piqued my interest. Not only did I watch the Mass but followed along for the rosary. The organ accompaniment and chant were beautiful!

29 March 2020

Blessed Passion Sunday, I am a lifelong Catholic senior watching your mass online everyday from USA! I love your church and wish I could visit in person sometime. The Tridentine mass is as important to me as it was to St. Pio. With much gratitude to you all+++ Can you tell me how it would be best to donate to your FSSP church in Warrington? I am not sure what method is best.

Thank you

29 March 2020

Deo Gratias! I am writing from Canada during the corona virus pandemic. I thank God for leading me to your church so that I can join in the celebration of the Eucharist! I have wept during the celebration and will always remember your beautiful church and priests in my prayers.

29 March 2020

Dear Dear Fathers,

Sincere thanks to you from the United States for your beautiful celebrations of the Holy Sacrifice of the Mass and for your profound and stirring homilies.  I can’t wait to get up in the morning to hear Mass online!

God bless you and keep you all in good health.

by Fr AM

Sunday Bulletin 29 March 2020

Click here to open this bulletin as pdf.

Corona virus:

Dear Friends, we miss you in the pews! But as we pray for all those affected by this virus and as we take precautions against spreading it, let us not lose heart.

Let us seek God first and His kingdom. From a spiritual perspective, God’s Providence encompasses everything. God never wills evil, but He sometimes allows tribulations as a consequence of our sins and as an opportunity for repentance and conversion. “And I say to you, my friends: Be not afraid of them who kill the body [that includes viruses] and after that have no more that they can do. But I will shew you whom you shall fear: Fear ye him who, after he hath killed, hath power to cast into hell. Are not five sparrows sold for two farthings, and not one of them is forgotten before God? Yea, the very hairs of your head are all numbered. Fear not therefore: you are of more value than many sparrows” (Lk 12:4-7).

While no expert is currently able to predict with certainty how the bleak situation will evolve, let us beware of apocalyptic interpretation of figures. One can take courage from the hopeful data offered by epidemiologists in the UK and abroad (cf in-length articles on our website) suggesting that:

1) Covid-19-attributed deaths in the UK are 1,020 (5^th to 28^th March 6pm), against 17,000 deaths per year caused by flu only.

2) Only a tiny percentage of these deaths were caused by Covid-19 only (0.8 % in Italy). Most patients died of other underlying conditions; that is, most died with Covid-19 but not of Covid-19.

3) A vast amount of people are contaminated unbeknownst to them, or showing mild symptoms. This lowers considerably the death rate of Covid-19.

4) By far the main cause of death in the UK is surgical abortion (not including abortion through abortifacient pills).

Below: UK death figures compiled from www.gov.uk and other agencies for the years 2017, 2018 and/or 2019:

What to do, meanwhile:

The obligation to attend Sunday Mass and Holy Days is removed for as long as this crisis continues. Before the lockdown, St Mary’s clergy administered the sacrament of the Anointing of the Sick with Plenary Indulgence to one third of our congregation. Although St Mary’s Church is presently closed even for private prayer sadly, feel welcome to phone or email us if you need spiritual support and we will do our best to respond pastorally “as long as hygiene and social distancing requirements are observed.”

Tell your friends about LiveMass.net, allowing you to unite with the holy Sacrifice of the Mass at St Mary’s, either live (Mon-Sat 12:10pm, Sun 11:00am) or on demand (for 24hrs following each weekday Mass and for 7 days following each Sunday Mass). We plan to have the full Sacred Triduum broadcast (check our website for schedule by 8^th April) on LiveMass.net; which will be part of the online resources advertised by the Bishops of England & Wales’ Conference at their request. With five clerics living at St Mary’s Presbytery as one household and with off-street access to our place of worship, we are in the fortunate situation of being able to offer full sung liturgies, broadcast on LiveMass.net, please God.

Let us pray for each other and telephone or email each other to check how the more isolated ones are doing.

During this forced Lenten retreat, let us make sure to use the spare time for prayer and spiritual reading, and for family activities within each household. If not yet the case, install a ‘prayer corner’ in your home, where alone or together you can pray.

Don’t forget to say the Prayer in times of Epidemics that we pray daily at the end of Mass; and the Plenary Indulgence granted amidst the Covid-19 crisis.

Collection money:

Please put your Sunday collection money aside each week and give it to us when churches reopen. Or alternatively, pay your collection money into our Shrine bank account ( Account name: FSSP Warrington. Account number (Lloyds Bank): 30993368. Sort Code 30-80-27); or drop through our Front Door mail slot. 

Education project at St Mary’s Sunday 26 April 2020, 12:30pm-3:30pm: meeting for all interested, with presentation of the Regina Caeli Academy (to be confirmed).

Next trek with Juventutem Young Adults (18-35): 18^th April; 16^th May. Contact helena.waddelove@hotmail.co.uk. Also, Juventutem Summer Weekend near London 3-5 July 2020. Also, CHARTRES Pilgrimage: 30^th May-1^st June 2020 with Frs de Malleray and Whisenant. Contact: pippajcurran97@gmail.com.

Mass Intentions:

(Other intentions were applied over the past 2 weeks at private Masses. Please ask Fr Whisenant for details.)

ALL EVENTS BELOW behind locked doors, to be attended remotely via LiveMass.net ONLY.

by Fr AM

Every year, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment:SWPRS.ORG

A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19 A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment:

Published: March 14, 2020; Updated: March 26, 2020
Languages: DE, EN, FR, ES, HU, IT, NO, PL

A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment. (Daily updates below)

According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.

The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.

(Update: The Italian National Institute of Health published a statistical report on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)

The doctor also points out the following aspects:

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.

South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.

The few dozen test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.

Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)

Thus the most important indicator for judging the danger of the disease is not the frequently reported number of positively-tested persons and deaths, but the number of persons actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality).

According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of the Covid-19 disease can be expected. Senior citizens and persons with existing chronic diseases should be protected. The medical capacities should be optimally prepared.

Medical literature

(1) Zhuang et al., Potential false-positive rate among the ‚asymptomatic infected individuals‘ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients, Chinese Medical Association Publishing House, March 2020.

(2) Grasselli et al., Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, JAMA, March 2020.

(3) WHO, Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019, February 2020.

Reference values

Important reference values include the number of annual flu deaths, which is up to 8,000 in Italy and up to 60,000 in the US; normal overall mortality, which in Italy is up to 2,000 deaths per day; and the average number of pneumonia cases per year, which in Italy is over 120,000.

Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average. Any excess mortality due to Covid-19 should become visible in the European monitoring charts.

Updates

March 17, 2020 (I)

• The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
• The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
• The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.
• In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation.

March 17, 2020 (II)

• Italian immunology professor Sergio Romagnani from the University of Florence comes to the conclusion in a study on 3000 people that 50 to 75% of the test-positive people of all ages remain completely symptom-free – significantly more than previously assumed.
• The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.
• A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid19 and doctors have lost control.

March 18, 2020

• A new epidemiological study (preprint) concludes that the fatality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. As a reason for the overestimated fatality of Covid19, the researchers suspect that initially only a small number of cases were recorded in Wuhan, as the disease was probably asymptomatic or mild in many people.
• Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality.
• New satellite images show how Northern Italy has the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, and how this air pollution has been greatly reduced by the quarantine.
• A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated.

March 19, 2020 (I)

The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:

• The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
• 10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
• At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
• Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
• Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
• The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.

March 19, 2020 (II)

• A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations.
• German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.
• According to Stanford Professor John Ioannidis, the new coronavirus may be no more dangerous than some of the common coronaviruses, even in older people. Ioannidis argues that there is no reliable medical data backing the measures currently decided upon.

March 20, 2020

• According to the latest European monitoring report, overall mortality in all countries (including Italy) and in all age groups remains within or even below the normal range so far.
• According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death.
• A 2006 Canadian study referred to by Stanford Professor John Ioannidis found that common cold coronaviruses may also cause death rates of up to 6% in risk groups such as residents of a care facility, and that virus test kits initially falsely indicated an infection with SARS coronaviruses.

March 21, 2020 (I)

• Spain reports only three test-positive deaths under the age of 65 (out of a total of about 1000). Their pre-existing health conditions and actual cause of death are not yet known.
• On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.
• According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs.
• Bloomberg highlights that „99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says“

March 21, 2020 (II)

• The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“
• Italian researchers argue that the extreme smog in Northern Italy, the worst in Europe, may be playing a causative role in the current pneumonia outbreak there, as in Wuhan before.
• In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.

March 22, 2020 (I)

Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.

As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extra­polated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.

Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.

However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.

Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.

If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)

March 22, 2020 (II)

• In Switzerland, there are currently 56 test-positive deaths, all of whom were „high risk patients“ due to their advanced age and/or pre-existing health conditions. Their actual cause of death, i.e. from or simply with the virus, has not been communicated.
• The Swiss government claimed that the situation in southern Switzerland (next to Italy) is „dramatic“, yet local doctors denied this and said everything is normal.
• According to press reports, oxygen bottles may become scarce. The reason, however, is not a currently higher usage, but rather hoarding due to fear of future shortages.
• In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free.

March 22, 2020 (III)

• A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low.
• Dr. David Katz, founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, asks in the New York Times: „Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.“
• According to Italian Professor Walter Ricciardi, „only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus“, whereas in public reports „all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus“. This means that Italian death figures reported by the media have to be reduced by at least a factor of 8 to obtain actual deaths caused by the virus. Thus one ends up with at most a few dozen deaths per day, compared to an overall daily mortality of 1800 deaths and up to 20,000 flu deaths per year.

March 23, 2020 (I)

• A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that  „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.
• An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
• In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza.
• A leading Italian doctor reports that „strange cases of pneumonia“ were seen in the Lombardy region already in November 2019, raising again the question if they were caused by the new virus (which officially only appeared in Italy in February 2020), or by other factors, such as the dangerously high smog levels in Northern Italy.
• Danish researcher Peter Gøtzsche, founder of the renowned Cochrane Medical Collaboration, writes that Corona is „an epidemic of mass panic“ and „logic was one of the first victims.“

March 23, 2020 (II)

• Former Israeli Health Minister, Professor Yoram Lass, says that the new coronavirus is „less dangerous than the flu“ and lockdown measures „will kill more people than the virus“. He adds that „the numbers do not match the panic“ and „psychology is prevailing over science“. He also notes that „Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“
• Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
• The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues that lockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
• Switzerland: Despite media panic, excess mortality still at or near zero: the latest testpositive „victims“ were a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions.
• The latest statistical report of the Italian National Health Institute is now available in English.

March 24, 2020

• The UK has removed Covid19 from the official list of High Consquence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are „low overall“.
• The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) admitted that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.
• Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“.
• German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus“ and that „panic must end“.
• In Italy, overall national mortality of the 65+ age group until March 7 remained below the level of earlier years, especially due to the rather mild winter (see red line in chart below).

March 25, 2020

• German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
• The Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu. It is even possible that the Covid19 virus circulated already in earlier years, but wasn’t discovered because no one was looking for it. Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror“ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.
• Professor Martin Exner, head of the Institute for Hygiene at the University of Bonn, explains in an interview why health personnel are currently under pressure, even though there has hardly been any increase in the number of patients in Germany so far: On the one hand, doctors and nurses who have tested positive have to be quarantined and are often hard to replace. On the other hand, nurses from neighbouring countries, who provide an important part of the care, are currently unable to enter the country due to closed borders.
• Professor Julian Nida-Ruemelin, former German Minister of State for Culture and Professor of Ethics, points out that Covid19 poses no risk to the healthy general population and that extreme measures such as curfews are therefore not justified.
• Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.

March 26, 2020 (I)

• USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week.

USA: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (March 25, 2020, KINSA)

• Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“

Germany: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (20 March 2020, RKI)

• Italy: The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
• UK: The authors of the British Imperial College study, who predicted up to 500,000 deaths, are again reducing their forecasts. After already admitting that a large proportion of test-positive deaths are part of normal mortality, they now state that the peak of the disease may be reached in two to three weeks already.
• UK: The British Guardian reported in February 2019 that even in the generally weak flu season 2018/2019 there were more than 2180 flu-related admissions to intensive care units in the UK.
• Switzerland: In Switzerland, the excess mortality due to Covid19 is apparently still zero. The latest „fatal victim“ presented by the media is a 100-year-old woman. Nevertheless, the Swiss government continues to tighten restrictive measures.

March 26, 2020 (II)

• Sweden: Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. „If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,“ said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell said.
• German criminal and constitutional law expert Dr. Jessica Hamed argues that measures such as general curfews and contact bans are a massive and disproportionate encroachment on fundamental rights of freedom and are therefore presumably „all illegal“.
• The latest European monitoring report on overall mortality continues to show normal or below-average values in all countries and all age groups, but now with one exception: in the 65+ age group in Italy a currently increased overall mortality is predicted (so-called delay-adjusted z-score), which is, however, still below the values of the influenza waves of 2017 and 2018.

by Fr AM

How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Dr John Lee

There is room for different interpretations of the data

From magazine issue: 28 March 2020

In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of our nation, Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.

But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and NHS consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science – fields which, all too often, are characterised by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

Initial reported figures from China and Italy suggested a death rate of 5 per cent to 15 per cent, similar to Spanish flu. Given that cases were increasing exponentially, this raised the prospect of death rates that no healthcare system in the world would be able to cope with. The need to avoid this scenario is the justification for measures being implemented: the Spanish flu is believed to have infected about one in four of the world’s population between 1918 and 1920, or roughly 500 million people with 50 million deaths. We developed pandemic emergency plans, ready to snap into action in case this happened again.

At the time of writing, the UK’s 422 deaths and 8,077 known cases give an apparent death rate of 5 per cent. This is often cited as a cause for concern, contrasted with the mortality rate of seasonal flu, which is estimated at about 0.1 per cent. But we ought to look very carefully at the data. Are these figures really comparable?

Most of the UK testing has been in hospitals, where there is a high concentration of patients susceptible to the effects of any infection. As anyone who has worked with sick people will know, any testing regime that is based only in hospitals will over-estimate the virulence of an infection. Also, we’re only dealing with those Covid-19 cases that have made people sick enough or worried enough to get tested. There will be many more unaware that they have the virus, with either no symptoms, or mild ones.Any testing regime that is based only in hospitals will overestimate the virulence of an infection

That’s why, when Britain had 590 diagnosed cases, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the real figure was probably between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, ten to 20 times higher. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus is likely to be ten to 20 times lower, say 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. That puts the Covid-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu.

But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of Covid-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting Covid-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death.

Let us also consider the Covid-19 graphs, showing an exponential rise in cases — and deaths. They can look alarming. But if we tracked flu or other seasonal viruses in the same way, we would also see an exponential increase. We would also see some countries behind others, and striking fatality rates. The United States Centers for Disease Control, for example, publishes weekly estimates of flu cases. The latest figures show that since September, flu has infected 38 million Americans, hospitalised 390,000 and killed 23,000. This does not cause public alarm because flu is familiar.

The data on Covid-19 differs wildly from country to country. Look at the figures for Italy and Germany. At the time of writing, Italy has 69,176 recorded cases and 6,820 deaths, a rate of 9.9 per cent. Germany has 32,986 cases and 157 deaths, a rate of 0.5 per cent. Do we think that the strain of virus is so different in these nearby countries as to virtually represent different diseases? Or that the populations are so different in their susceptibility to the virus that the death rate can vary more than twentyfold? If not, we ought to suspect systematic error, that the Covid-19 data we are seeing from different countries is not directly comparable.

Look at other rates: Spain 7.1 per cent, US 1.3 per cent, Switzerland 1.3 per cent, France 4.3 per cent, South Korea 1.3 per cent, Iran 7.8 per cent. We may very well be comparing apples with oranges. Recording cases where there was a positive test for the virus is a very different thing to recording the virus as the main cause of death.

Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organisation for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 per cent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 per cent. As population testing becomes more widespread elsewhere in the world, we will find a greater and greater proportion of cases where infections have already occurred and caused only mild effects. In fact, as time goes on, this will become generally truer too, because most infections tend to decrease in virulence as an epidemic progresses.

One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.

Covid-19 can clearly cause serious respiratory tract compromise in some patients, especially those with chest issues, and in smokers. The elderly are probably more at risk, as they are for infections of any kind. The average age of those dying in Italy is 78.5 years, with almost nine in ten fatalities among the over-70s. The life expectancy in Italy — that is, the number of years you can expect to live to from birth, all things being equal — is 82.5 years. But all things are not equal when a new seasonal virus goes around.

It certainly seems reasonable, now, that a degree of social distancing should be maintained for a while, especially for the elderly and the immune-suppressed. But when drastic measures are introduced, they should be based on clear evidence. In the case of Covid-19, the evidence is not clear. The UK’s lockdown has been informed by modelling of what might happen. More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors? Tweak any of these assumptions and the outcome (and predicted death toll) can change radically.

Much of the response to Covid-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before. The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science.

Clearly, the various lockdowns will slow the spread of Covid-19 so there will be fewer cases. When we relax the measures, there will be more cases again. But this need not be a reason to keep the lockdown: the spread of cases is only something to fear if we are dealing with an unusually lethal virus. That’s why the way we record data will be hugely important. Unless we tighten criteria for recording death due only to the virus (as opposed to it being present in those who died from other conditions), the official figures may show a lot more deaths apparently caused by the virus than is actually the case. What then? How do we measure the health consequences of taking people’s lives, jobs, leisure and purpose away from them to protect them from an anticipated threat? Which causes least harm?

The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?

Governments everywhere say they are responding to the science. The policies in the UK are not the government’s fault. They are trying to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given. But governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science. We have decided on policies of extraordinary magnitude without concrete evidence of excess harm already occurring, and without proper scrutiny of the science used to justify them.

In the next few days and weeks, we must continue to look critically and dispassionately at the Covid-19 evidence as it comes in. Above all else, we must keep an open mind — and look for what is, not for what we fear might be.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist. WRITTEN BY Dr John Lee

by Fr AM