A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19 A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment:
A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment. (Daily updates below)
According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.
80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.
Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.
The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.
The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).
The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.
(Update: The Italian National Institute of Health published a statistical report on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)
The doctor also points out the following aspects:
Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.
South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.
The few dozen test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.
Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)
Thus the most important indicator for judging the danger of the disease is not the frequently reported number of positively-tested persons and deaths, but the number of persons actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality).
According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of the Covid-19 disease can be expected. Senior citizens and persons with existing chronic diseases should be protected. The medical capacities should be optimally prepared.
Important reference values include the number of annual flu deaths, which is up to 8,000 in Italy and up to 60,000 in the US; normal overall mortality, which in Italy is up to 2,000 deaths per day; and the average number of pneumonia cases per year, which in Italy is over 120,000.
Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average. Any excess mortality due to Covid-19 should become visible in the European monitoring charts.
Winter smog (NO2) in Northern Italy in February 2020 (ESA)
Updates
March 17, 2020 (I)
The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.
In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation.
March 17, 2020 (II)
Italian immunology professor Sergio Romagnani from the University of Florence comes to the conclusion in a study on 3000 people that 50 to 75% of the test-positive people of all ages remain completely symptom-free – significantly more than previously assumed.
The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.
A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid19 and doctors have lost control.
March 18, 2020
A new epidemiological study (preprint) concludes that the fatality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. As a reason for the overestimated fatality of Covid19, the researchers suspect that initially only a small number of cases were recorded in Wuhan, as the disease was probably asymptomatic or mild in many people.
Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality.
New satellite images show how Northern Italy has the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, and how this air pollution has been greatly reduced by the quarantine.
A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated.
Datasheet of Covid19 virus test kit
March 19, 2020 (I)
The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:
The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.
March 19, 2020 (II)
A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations.
German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.
According to Stanford Professor John Ioannidis, the new coronavirus may be no more dangerous than some of the common coronaviruses, even in older people. Ioannidis argues that there is no reliable medical data backing the measures currently decided upon.
March 20, 2020
According to the latest European monitoring report, overall mortality in all countries (including Italy) and in all age groups remains within or even below the normal range so far.
According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death.
A 2006 Canadian study referred to by Stanford Professor John Ioannidis found that common cold coronaviruses may also cause death rates of up to 6% in risk groups such as residents of a care facility, and that virus test kits initially falsely indicated an infection with SARS coronaviruses.
March 21, 2020 (I)
Spain reports only three test-positive deaths under the age of 65 (out of a total of about 1000). Their pre-existing health conditions and actual cause of death are not yet known.
On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.
According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs.
Italy test-positive deaths by prior illnesses (ISS / Bloomberg)
March 21, 2020 (II)
The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“
Italian researchers argue that the extreme smog in Northern Italy, the worst in Europe, may be playing a causative role in the current pneumonia outbreak there, as in Wuhan before.
In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.
March 22, 2020 (I)
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.
As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extrapolated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.
Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.
However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.
Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.
If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)
Angelo Borrelli, head of the Italian Civil Protection Service, emphasizing the difference between deaths with and from coronaviruses.
March 22, 2020 (II)
In Switzerland, there are currently 56 test-positive deaths, all of whom were „high risk patients“ due to their advanced age and/or pre-existing health conditions. Their actual cause of death, i.e. from or simply with the virus, has not been communicated.
The Swiss government claimed that the situation in southern Switzerland (next to Italy) is „dramatic“, yet local doctors denied this and said everything is normal.
According to press reports, oxygen bottles may become scarce. The reason, however, is not a currently higher usage, but rather hoarding due to fear of future shortages.
In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free.
March 22, 2020 (III)
A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low.
Dr. David Katz, founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, asks in the New York Times: „Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.“
According to Italian Professor Walter Ricciardi, „only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus“, whereas in public reports „all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus“. This means that Italian death figures reported by the media have to be reduced by at least a factor of 8 to obtain actual deaths caused by the virus. Thus one ends up with at most a few dozen deaths per day, compared to an overall daily mortality of 1800 deaths and up to 20,000 flu deaths per year.
March 23, 2020 (I)
A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.
An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza.
A leading Italian doctor reports that „strange cases of pneumonia“ were seen in the Lombardy region already in November 2019, raising again the question if they were caused by the new virus (which officially only appeared in Italy in February 2020), or by other factors, such as the dangerously high smog levels in Northern Italy.
Danish researcher Peter Gøtzsche, founder of the renowned Cochrane Medical Collaboration, writes that Corona is „an epidemic of mass panic“ and „logic was one of the first victims.“
March 23, 2020 (II)
Former Israeli Health Minister, Professor Yoram Lass, says that the new coronavirus is „less dangerous than the flu“ and lockdown measures „will kill more people than the virus“. He adds that „the numbers do not match the panic“ and „psychology is prevailing over science“. He also notes that „Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“
Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues that lockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
Switzerland: Despite media panic, excess mortality still at or near zero: the latest testpositive „victims“ were a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions.
The latest statistical report of the Italian National Health Institute is now available in English.
March 24, 2020
The UK has removed Covid19 from the official list of High Consquence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are „low overall“.
The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) admitted that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.
Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“.
German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus“ and that „panic must end“.
In Italy, overall national mortality of the 65+ age group until March 7 remained below the level of earlier years, especially due to the rather mild winter (see red line in chart below).
Italy: Overall mortality of 65+ age group (red) compared to earlier years (March 7, 2020 / MdS)
March 25, 2020
German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
The Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu. It is even possible that the Covid19 virus circulated already in earlier years, but wasn’t discovered because no one was looking for it. Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror“ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.
Professor Martin Exner, head of the Institute for Hygiene at the University of Bonn, explains in an interview why health personnel are currently under pressure, even though there has hardly been any increase in the number of patients in Germany so far: On the one hand, doctors and nurses who have tested positive have to be quarantined and are often hard to replace. On the other hand, nurses from neighbouring countries, who provide an important part of the care, are currently unable to enter the country due to closed borders.
Professor Julian Nida-Ruemelin, former German Minister of State for Culture and Professor of Ethics, points out that Covid19 poses no risk to the healthy general population and that extreme measures such as curfews are therefore not justified.
Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.
March 26, 2020 (I)
USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week.
Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“
Germany: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (20 March 2020, RKI)
Italy: The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
UK: The authors of the British Imperial College study, who predicted up to 500,000 deaths, are again reducing their forecasts. After already admitting that a large proportion of test-positive deaths are part of normal mortality, they now state that the peak of the disease may be reached in two to three weeks already.
UK: The British Guardian reported in February 2019 that even in the generally weak flu season 2018/2019 there were more than 2180 flu-related admissions to intensive care units in the UK.
Switzerland: In Switzerland, the excess mortality due to Covid19 is apparently still zero. The latest „fatal victim“ presented by the media is a 100-year-old woman. Nevertheless, the Swiss government continues to tighten restrictive measures.
March 26, 2020 (II)
Sweden: Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. „If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,“ said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell said.
German criminal and constitutional law expert Dr. Jessica Hamed argues that measures such as general curfews and contact bans are a massive and disproportionate encroachment on fundamental rights of freedom and are therefore presumably „all illegal“.
The latest European monitoring report on overall mortality continues to show normal or below-average values in all countries and all age groups, but now with one exception: in the 65+ age group in Italy a currently increased overall mortality is predicted (so-called delay-adjusted z-score), which is, however, still below the values of the influenza waves of 2017 and 2018.
Albert Camus, The Plague (1947): „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of our nation, Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.
But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and NHS consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science – fields which, all too often, are characterised by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.
Initial reported figures from China and Italy suggested a death rate of 5 per cent to 15 per cent, similar to Spanish flu. Given that cases were increasing exponentially, this raised the prospect of death rates that no healthcare system in the world would be able to cope with. The need to avoid this scenario is the justification for measures being implemented: the Spanish flu is believed to have infected about one in four of the world’s population between 1918 and 1920, or roughly 500 million people with 50 million deaths. We developed pandemic emergency plans, ready to snap into action in case this happened again.
At the time of writing, the UK’s 422 deaths and 8,077 known cases give an apparent death rate of 5 per cent. This is often cited as a cause for concern, contrasted with the mortality rate of seasonal flu, which is estimated at about 0.1 per cent. But we ought to look very carefully at the data. Are these figures really comparable?
Most of the UK testing has been in hospitals, where there is a high concentration of patients susceptible to the effects of any infection. As anyone who has worked with sick people will know, any testing regime that is based only in hospitals will over-estimate the virulence of an infection. Also, we’re only dealing with those Covid-19 cases that have made people sick enough or worried enough to get tested. There will be many more unaware that they have the virus, with either no symptoms, or mild ones.Any testing regime that is based only in hospitals will overestimate the virulence of an infection
That’s why, when Britain had 590 diagnosed cases, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the real figure was probably between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, ten to 20 times higher. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus is likely to be ten to 20 times lower, say 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. That puts the Covid-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu.
But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.
Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.
In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.
If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of Covid-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting Covid-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death.
Let us also consider the Covid-19 graphs, showing an exponential rise in cases — and deaths. They can look alarming. But if we tracked flu or other seasonal viruses in the same way, we would also see an exponential increase. We would also see some countries behind others, and striking fatality rates. The United States Centers for Disease Control, for example, publishes weekly estimates of flu cases. The latest figures show that since September, flu has infected 38 million Americans, hospitalised 390,000 and killed 23,000. This does not cause public alarm because flu is familiar.
The data on Covid-19 differs wildly from country to country. Look at the figures for Italy and Germany. At the time of writing, Italy has 69,176 recorded cases and 6,820 deaths, a rate of 9.9 per cent. Germany has 32,986 cases and 157 deaths, a rate of 0.5 per cent. Do we think that the strain of virus is so different in these nearby countries as to virtually represent different diseases? Or that the populations are so different in their susceptibility to the virus that the death rate can vary more than twentyfold? If not, we ought to suspect systematic error, that the Covid-19 data we are seeing from different countries is not directly comparable.
Look at other rates: Spain 7.1 per cent, US 1.3 per cent, Switzerland 1.3 per cent, France 4.3 per cent, South Korea 1.3 per cent, Iran 7.8 per cent. We may very well be comparing apples with oranges. Recording cases where there was a positive test for the virus is a very different thing to recording the virus as the main cause of death.
Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organisation for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 per cent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 per cent. As population testing becomes more widespread elsewhere in the world, we will find a greater and greater proportion of cases where infections have already occurred and caused only mild effects. In fact, as time goes on, this will become generally truer too, because most infections tend to decrease in virulence as an epidemic progresses.
One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.
Covid-19 can clearly cause serious respiratory tract compromise in some patients, especially those with chest issues, and in smokers. The elderly are probably more at risk, as they are for infections of any kind. The average age of those dying in Italy is 78.5 years, with almost nine in ten fatalities among the over-70s. The life expectancy in Italy — that is, the number of years you can expect to live to from birth, all things being equal — is 82.5 years. But all things are not equal when a new seasonal virus goes around.
It certainly seems reasonable, now, that a degree of social distancing should be maintained for a while, especially for the elderly and the immune-suppressed. But when drastic measures are introduced, they should be based on clear evidence. In the case of Covid-19, the evidence is not clear. The UK’s lockdown has been informed by modelling of what might happen. More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors? Tweak any of these assumptions and the outcome (and predicted death toll) can change radically.
Much of the response to Covid-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before. The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science.
Clearly, the various lockdowns will slow the spread of Covid-19 so there will be fewer cases. When we relax the measures, there will be more cases again. But this need not be a reason to keep the lockdown: the spread of cases is only something to fear if we are dealing with an unusually lethal virus. That’s why the way we record data will be hugely important. Unless we tighten criteria for recording death due only to the virus (as opposed to it being present in those who died from other conditions), the official figures may show a lot more deaths apparently caused by the virus than is actually the case. What then? How do we measure the health consequences of taking people’s lives, jobs, leisure and purpose away from them to protect them from an anticipated threat? Which causes least harm?
The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?
Governments everywhere say they are responding to the science. The policies in the UK are not the government’s fault. They are trying to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given. But governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science. We have decided on policies of extraordinary magnitude without concrete evidence of excess harm already occurring, and without proper scrutiny of the science used to justify them.
In the next few days and weeks, we must continue to look critically and dispassionately at the Covid-19 evidence as it comes in. Above all else, we must keep an open mind — and look for what is, not for what we fear might be.
John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist. WRITTEN BYDr John Lee
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).
“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.
“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.
To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:
Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.
Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”
“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.
“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”
Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.
Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.
If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased – which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize – which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* – the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
Correction: The original title of this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong. The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps.
Tell your friends and colleagues. This is a great opportunity to make the beauty and depth of the traditional Latin Mass better known, especially by people who might not visit these churches in ordinary circumstances.
In this times of pandemic, St Mary’s Warrington is one of the very few places where five clerics are able to perform a traditional Missa Cantata behind closed doors (since we live as one household in the same presbytery; pray that we don’t fall ill, or it will have to be a Low Mass every day!).
Messages of thank are sent to our priests from various countries for our LiveMass.net apostolate allowing thousands to attend the Holy Sacrifice from a distance.
Examples: “Dear Fathers, thank you for the Live Mass today [Sunday 22 March] on Internet! I was able to follow the Mass in Warrington from W. this morning. Good to know you’ve been prepared with this website for a few years. Also happy to see you both, even in such circumstances.”
“Dear Fathers, I just wanted to thank you for your wonderful initiative in live streaming the Holy Mass. These are difficult times for us all and as your said in your sermon, we should be not satisfied with attending the Mass in this way. However, you are providing great comfort for many families globally in doing so. And what a beautiful church! God Bless, A., M. and …family.”
“Dear Fr …, A quick message to thank you for the amazing LiveMass transmissions. I followed for St Joseph, St Benedict and now Laetare – quite surreal (and sad) to see you sprinkling row upon row of empty pews! I must say the quality is superb and it is a wonderful resource to have in these extraordinary times (I’ve sent a small donation to LiveMass.net). God bless, J.”
Practical reminders: On every location, you can watch the ‘Mass of the Day’ for 24hrs and the ‘Mass of the Sunday’ for 7 days. Just click on the relevant link under the name of location. Again, you do not need to watch live always, but on demand when you like.
If streaming is slow, click on the ‘HD’ icon on the bottom righ corner of the screen and select a lower definition.
Dear parishioners, owing to the coronavirus, the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England & Wales has ordered that from 21st March all public liturgies be stopped until further notice in order to try and minimise the spreading of the virus.
Therefore, please note the
following:
Please sanitise your hands and keep good hygiene.
Please keep a distance of 2 empty pews from the next person (make use of side aisle pews). NB – one family/household can be together in a pew as they would be at home.
Don’t share/put back booklets e.g. for stations of the cross – instead take home and bring along with you to use each time you come. (Hymn books are not to be used).
There will be no communal Stations of the Cross or rosary.
Sundays:
Church open for private prayer 8am-7.30pm (shut between 10.45am-12.30pm).
Exposition of the Blessed Sacrament (without Benediction) 3pm-7pm.
Let us invoke Our Blessed Mother, St Joseph, St Sebastian, St Peregrini, St Roch, St Peter, St Benedict, Bl James Bell, our patron saints and guardian angels at this time.
2 – SUPPORT PEOPLE:
a) Check on isolated parishioners from St Mary’s Shrine: If you are already in touch with some, give the clergy their name and contact details (with their permission). Every such isolated person needs to have a fellow parishioner as ‘Guardian Angel’ checking on them daily through a visit or at least a phone call or an email.
b) Even if you are not isolated, you may feel the need for support in these trying times. Do ring and email St Mary’s clergy for spiritual advice and comfort. Do watch our daily Holy Mass (usual times) and listen to the daily homily (send your friends the link: http://s3.amazonaws.com/livemass/warrington/index.html).
3 – SUPPORT YOUR SHRINE CHURCH:
We know that many of you may find themselves in financial difficulty over the coming weeks or months. Because we still need to pay the bills, we are grateful for whatever amount you can give. Please remember that the costs incurred to run St Mary’s Shrine remain high (estimated £1,700.00 per week).
The cancellation of public Masses prevents Offertory collections, but…
a) A safe box (under CCTV and emptied daily) is available at St Mary’s for you to give your offering when you visit.
b) Please set up standing orders especially if you can’t visit St Mary’s weekly: For FSSP Warrington Bank Name: Lloyds Bank Sort Code: 30-80-27 Account number: 30993368 Account name: FSSP Warrington
c) You live far away or abroad and you pray with St Mary’s via LiveMass: please help us carry on this ministry, donating to us via international transfers, adding to the details above the following:
Bank Branch: Palmerston Rd Southsea Bank Address: Ariel House, 2138 Coventry Road, Sheldon, B26 3JW IBAN: GB97LOYD30802730993368 SWIFT code: LOYDGB21721
d) The Gift Aid envelopes are available for collection in the narthex and can continue to be used even if the donations don’t reach us weekly. Set them aside to bring whenever you can come. Click here to open and fill in the Gift Aid form.
c) Consider endowing St Mary’s Shrine with long-term income through bequesting a legacy to us. There are currently five clerics at St Mary’s and adequate buildings, but we are not yet self-sustainable and we do need a significant increase of our weekly income. Your bequest is to be made to our registered charity no.1129964, ‘Fraternitas Sacerdotalis Sancti Petri Ltd’ (FSSP England), but it will be used exclusively to support St Mary’s Shrine Church in Warrington if you specify it. Please contact you solicitor and St Mary’s to discuss praticalities.
b) Fatima Prayer given to the three children by the Angel who preceded Our Lady’s first appearance to them in 1917.
‘MOST Holy Trinity, Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, I adore Thee profoundly. I offer Thee the Most Precious Body, Blood, Soul, and Divinity of Jesus Christ, present in all the tabernacles of the world, in reparation for the outrages, sacrileges, and indifference by which He is offended. And through the infinite merit of His Most Sacred Heart, and the Immaculate Heart of Mary, I beg of Thee the conversion of poor sinners.’ (3 times)
c) Spiritual Communion (Catechism of the Council of Trent):
Threefold Manner Of Communicating
‘That the faithful may learn to be zealous for the better gifts, they must be shown who can obtain these abundant fruits from the Holy Eucharist, must be reminded that there is not only one way of communicating. Wisely and rightly, then, did our predecessors in the faith, as we read in the Council of Trent, distinguish three ways of receiving this Sacrament.
‘Some receive it sacramentally only. Such are those sinners who do not fear to approach the holy mysteries with polluted lips and heart, who, as the Apostle says, eat and drink the Lord’s body unworthily. Of this class of communicants St. Augustine says: He who dwells not in Christ, and in whom Christ dwells not, most certainly does not eat spiritually His flesh, although carnally and visibly he press with his teeth the Sacrament of His flesh and blood. Those, therefore, who receive the sacred mysteries with such a disposition, not only obtain no fruit therefrom, but, as the Apostle himself testifies, eat and drink judgment to themselves.
‘Others are said to receive the Eucharist in spirit only. They are those who, inflamed with a lively faith which worketh by charity,’ partake in wish and desire of that celestial bread offered to them, from which they receive, if not the entire, at least very great fruits.
‘Lastly, there are some who receive the Holy Eucharist both sacramentally and spiritually, those who, according to the teaching of the Apostle, having first proved themselves and having approached this divine banquet adorned with the nuptial garment, derive from the Eucharist those most abundant fruits which we have already described. Hence it is clear that those who, having it in their power to receive with fitting preparation the Sacrament of the body of the Lord, are yet satisfied with a spiritual Communion only, deprive themselves of the greatest and most heavenly advantages.’
d) Traditional Prayer for Spiritual Communion:
‘I wish, my Lord, to receive Thee, with the purity, humility and devotion with which Thy most Holy Mother received you, with the spirit and fervor of the saints.’
(popularised by St Josemaria Escriva, learnt from his primary school teacher Piarist Father Manuel Laborda)
e) Prayer to one’s Guardian Angel when unable to assist at Mass O Holy Angel at my side go to the church for me, kneel at my place at Holy Mass, where I desire to be, At offertory in my stead, take all I am and own and place it as a sacrifice upon the altar Throne. At Holy Consecration’s bell adore with Seraph’s love, My Jesus hidden in the Host, come down from heaven above. And when the priest Communion takes O bring my Lord to me, that His sweet Heart may rest on mine And I His temple be!
f) Before the monstrance or tabernacle:
My Lord and my God Jesus Christ, I firmly believe that you are here, really, truly and substantially present; with your sacred Body, your precious Blood, your human soul and your divinity under the externals of bread; and I adore you with the most profound reverence.
We urge all our parishioners of 70 years of age and beyond (and anyone with a serious medical condition) to present themselves to the priests at St Mary’s after the 12:10pm Mass of St Joseph today (19 March, or latest tomorrow 20 March) to receive the sacrament of Extreme-Unction in its shorter form.
We have sought canonical advice and certify that the unprecedented circumstances make it not only licit but highly advisable for you to receive this sacrament today because:
1)Medical experts assure that your chances of critical reaction to the virus are much higher than younger people, even though you may be in good health;
2) It is to be feared that priests will be prevented by public authorities from accessing your premises for the Last Rites later on (e.g. no priest chaplain allowed in many French hospitals even for dying people);
3) Priests may become infected and contagious, precluding visits to the sick.
Pleae share this information.
SUSPENSION OF PUBLIC MASSES:
As mandated by the Bishops of England and Wales, as an attempt to diminish exposure to the virus, public Holy Masses at St Mary’s Shrine and other liturgical activities and gatherings will cease as from Saturday 21st March included, until further notice. As recommended by our bishops, St Mary’s Church will remain open as usual for anyone to come and pray, except during the daily 12:10pm Mass which be offered behind closed doors while you may watch it on LiveMass (live or on demand) and make a spiritual Communion. Priests will offer their daily Masses privately and will be available for Confessions.
In this time of dire uncertainty, while discomfort and suffering are looming ahead for all, and death for some, let us more than ever remember that:
nothing escapes God’s Providence;
“the sufferings of this time are not worthy to be compared with the glory to come, that shall be revealed in us” (Romans 8:18);
trials can be turned into graces if embraced in a spirit of expiation for sins, of intercession for others and of reparation for the many crimes of our times;
this ordeal is occurring during Lent, the universal time of expiation;
and during the countdown to the re-dedication of England as Our Lady’s Dowry on 29th March.
Thus dear friends, let us courageously and trustfully face any distress, walking as carried by God and under Our Lady’s protection, begging for salvation not only for us but for all men.
Precautions: If you consider yourself at risk, we recommend you attend our 6pm Sunday Mass, with fewer people and a lesser risk of contagion. At any Mass, please clean your hands with sanitizers before you come and after. So do the priests giving Holy Communion. In the traditional Latin Mass, the thumbs and forefingers of the priest touch absolutely nothing else than the sacred host, not even the tongue of the communicant if the mouth is correctly opened.
BULLETIN of ST
MARY’S SHRINE 15th March 2020 Fortnightly www.fssp.co.uk/warrington
• 01925 635 664
Watch our Mass
daily on http://livemass.net/Buttermarket
Street, Warrington WA1 2NS
Served by the
Priestly Fraternity of St Peter
by appointment
of the RC Archdiocese of Liverpool
Rector: Fr Armand de Malleray, FSSP:
malleray@fssp.org
Assistant: Fr Ian Verrier, FSSP: iverrier@fssp.org
Assistant: Fr
Henry Whisenant: henrywhiz@hotmail.com
Deacon Roger Gilbride, FSSP: roger.gilbride@fssp.org
(on pastoral placement until Easter)
In residence: Fr
Alex Stewart, FSSP: astewart@olg-
seminary.org
Holy Masses: Sunday 11am & 6pm; Mon-Sat
12:10pm daily.
Confessions 30mins before every
Mass every day –
including from 5:30pm before 6pm Sunday Mass, and on Saturdays
10am-11:45amEucharistic Adoration: Sat 10:00am-12 noon; 1st Fri
7:40pm-8:40pm; most Wed. afternoon after school
Daily Rosary 11:30am Mon-Fri, 11am Sat. +
12noon Angelus
Sung Compline: Sunday 7:15pm, Wednesday 9:15pm
Stations of the Cross: Mon, Fri 1:00pm
Men’s group: Every Wed 7:00pm Mass + Talk
& Compline
Mothers’ Prayer group: Wed 1:00pm
Adults Catechesis: most Sunday mornings withFr Whisenant
Home Education Group: MostWednesdays 1pm-3:30pm. Contact Alison Kahn 01925 727759.
Choir: Every Thur & Sun.Contact Fr Verrier for an audition if you would like to join our
choir – including Junior choir.
Young Adults & Professionals 18-35: Monthly Sat walk and/or talk:
www.facebook.com/juventutem.warrington/
Divine Mercy group: every second Tuesday 1:00pm
Pro-life group: Last Sat 10:15am
SUPPORT—Bank details: Account name: FSSP
Warrington. Account number: 30993368. Sort Code 30-80-27; Lloyds
Bank, Palmerston Road Branch. Ask us for Gift Aid forms and envelopes:
warrington@fssp.org. Registered Charity number 1129964
Safeguarding: Children, teenagers and vulnerable adults must be accompanied or
supervised at all times within the Shrine. If you have concerns, please
contact the Archdiocesan Safeguarding Department on 0151 522 1043 or
e-mail safeguarding@rcaol.co.uk, or speak with Clare Fraser, St Mary’s Safeguarding
Officer. Thank you for your awareness.
Church cleaning: please given an hour of your
time each week to keep St Mary’s fit for divine worship.
Addicts to drugs, alcohol: help available
with high success rate. Free. Confidential phone contact: 07916578902.
☞To receive Holy Communion: one must be a Catholic, in state of grace, one-hour fasting at
least. In the EF liturgy, Holy Communion is received kneeling (unless
unable to) and always on the tongue.
If no server, please hold the Communion plate against your throat. Thank you in advance.
☞ Printed Mass sheets: please don’t bin them, as we will use them next
year. Leave them in church Porch.
☞ Modesty in church: please cover your bodies at least down to
elbows and below knees; no tight or see-through garments.
☞Did you know? St Mary’s
Shrine costs £1,700/week to run and maintain. Your generosity is greatly appreciated.
Stations of the Cross lead by clergy every Lenten Friday 1pm.
Gift Aid: if you are a regular user of the white FSSP Gift Aid envelopes, we need to change the way these are used. Letters explaining the different options can be found on the bench ledges. Please take one if this applies to you. Thank you.
Text of letter below:
Are you a regular Gift Aid donor?
If you are a regular user of the FSSP’s white Gift Aid envelopes, whilst we are sincerely grateful for your continued support and generosity, we need to change the way these envelopes are used due to the disproportionate amount of admin work they generate, both for the counters and in the processing of each donation. For regular giving, we are asking that you consider a different way to gift aid your donations.
If you still wish to use envelopes on a weekly basis, we can issue you with your own numbered box set for the coming tax year, subject to us receiving a Gift Aid Declaration form, available from the back of church. This means your details only need to be entered once onto our system and there is no need for you to write on the envelopes each time as the number identifies you. There is no commitment to giving a set amount; they can be used to fit with your circumstances. The white ‘occasional’ GA envelopes will still be available but please reserve these for occasional visitors or times when you might give an extra donation during any particular week.
Alternatively, and administratively the simplest option for us, please consider setting up a standing order to support the Warrington apostolate, which can still be Gift Aided with a completed form – the details of our bank account are on the bulletin or there are bank mandate forms for Warrington available in church.
Thank you once again for your generous support.
Jane Wright, Shrine Secretary
Kneeling at Consecration:
Unless you had knee surgery of late or are prevented by old age, please do
kneel at least during Consecration, and normally for the entire Canon of the
Mass (from after the Sanctus until before the Our Father). Thank you.
Preparation
Courses for First Holy Communion (to be conferred on
Corpus Christi Sunday, 14th June, 11am) and for Confirmation (to be conferred on Sat. 18th July,
3pm by Archbishop McMahon of Liverpool).
Both courses will begin on 15th March and every following Sunday
9:45am-10:45am.
Our
Lenten Shrine community alms this year will go to
Cenacolo, in support of people with addictions (https://cenacolouk.org/). Please
note: FSSP Warrington is exclusively responsible for this initiative and will
personally transfer the amount collected to the Cenacolo Community as a Lenten
offering from our Shrine community to Cenacolo UK.
25
women attended our first Women’s GroupMeeting on Sat. 7th March. After (optional)
10am-12noon adoration and 12:10pm Holy Mass, a packed lunch was taken in common
in the Shrine Hall, followed by talk by Fr Henry Whisenant on sacred art.
Suggest names for the group: current contenders St Anne and St Margaret
Clitherow. Next meeting: Sat. 25th
April, 1pm-3pm.
Any women from 18 to 118 welcome!
Brand
new Baronius hand missals for only £35.00 each! St
Mary’s Shrine being such a good customer, Baronius Press granted us a major
discount on their public price of £53.95 + shipping.
St
Patrick’s Party, Tuesday 17th March: 6pm shared Irish dishes
followed by 7pm film. Please bring some Irish cheeses, soda breads,
drinks/wines (email roger.gilbride@fssp.org to find out where you can buy
those). At 7pm, showing of the EWTN Film ‘Bravery Under Fire’ about the life of
Irish Fr William Doyle, SJ (90 mins). Fr Doyle is considered a ‘Martyr of
Charity’ as he died on the battlefield of Ypres in WWI rescuing wounded
soldiers (www.fatherdoyle.com).
Diocesan
Safeguarding Training session at St Benedict’s
Catholic Primary School, near St Benedict’s Church: at the end of Quebec Road,
WA2 7SB, Thursday 19th March, 7pm.
Mass
of Thanksgiving for Converts: Sat 21st March,12:10pm. Any converts and their
families and friends, especially those received or baptised at St Mary’s in the
past four years, are heartily invited to attend this Mass and join our wider
community in giving thanks to God for the gift of faith and of belonging to the
Church. It will be an opportunity to meet with other converts.
SCHEDULE: 10.30am Confessions 11.00am Solemn High Mass (1st Sunday in Passiontide) for the Re-Dedication of England 12noon The actual moment for the Re-dedication will coincide with Eucharistic Consecration 12.30pm Thanksgiving and packed lunch in new Parish Room (please bring your own) 2.00pm Holy Rosary and Act of Consecration to Our Lady (with Confessions) 2.30pm Eucharistic Adoration in intercession for England 3.00pm Sung Vespers
The following is part of the Shrine’s normal Sunday schedule: 5.30pm Confessions 6.00pm Low Mass (1st Sunday in Passiontide) 7.15pm Sung Compline
Please do not bring and display devotional literature, magazines or flyers for any events at St
Mary’s without the clergy’s permission. Thank you.
St Mary’s Library: On the contrary, you are welcome to show the priests sound Catholics books on lives of the saints, Catholic history and spirituality for them to check if they would fit in our soon-to-be opened St Mary’s Library. Please do not drop bags of books for this purpose, but kindly take back what the priests cannot retain.
EDUCATION MEETING WARRINGTON Sunday 26 April 2020, 12:30pm-3:30pm St Mary’s Church, Buttermarket Street, Warrington WA1 2NS FREE church car parks accessed via Smith Street and Buttermarket Street
WHAT: A number of families meet weekly at St Mary’s Shrine in Warrington for half a day of educational activities (about 25 children). In addition to this, we have been observing with interest the formation of the Regina Caeli Academy (RCA) in Bedfordshire over the past 18 months and have invited them to present their educational model in Warrington. With a spacious building just acquired next to our church, we now actively welcome educational initiatives and we pray God that we may answer them very soon.
WHO: Anyone with interest in education is welcome to attend. This includes not only parents wishing to support such an academy in Warrington, but also home educators eager to compare their methods with the RCA ones, parents whose children are in full time school education and are curious to hear what RCA can bring, as well as benefactors open to funding reliable Catholic education.
AHEAD: The innocence of our children is in danger. Next autumn, even Catholic schools will have young children subjected to lessons on sexuality delivered in a way which is very likely to harm their innocent souls and twist their understanding of natural law, while depriving their parents of their inalienable rights as their primary educators. Even if this concern did not exist, the fact that most teenagers educated in Catholic schools lapse demonstrates enough that more must be done to teach and form the next generations of Catholics.
BUT: Many parents agree with this assessment, but feel they can’t home educate, though. They don’t have the training, the time, the resources. They fear that home education might hinder socialising their children. They doubt whether home education would enable their children to enter the universities and get good jobs.
ASK: Regina Caeli [https://www.rcahybrid.org.uk/] is a private, independent tutoring centre operating in the Catholic tradition. It offers two full days of taught lessons in school (Mondays and Thursdays) and lesson plans for three days of lessons taught at home, for boys and girls aged 4-18. The two taught days comprise the majority of academic work and there is significant support for the homeschooling element. The organisation has grown rapidly since its launch in 2003, now operating in 16 locations in the United States (with 8 more in planning) and, of course, now also in Bedfordshire in the UK.
Regina Caeli is a response to the need for affordable, authentic, classical education taught in light of the Catholic tradition. Its primary goal is to aid the students in knowing, loving, and serving God by providing them with a “classical style” of education so they learn how to think critically and become life-long learners. The mission is both educational and apostolic combining high educational standards with faithful adherence to the Magisterium of the Church.
Leaders of Regina Caeli UK will give a presentation about the hybrid academy and answer any questions families may have.
TIMETABLE: 12:30pm Teas and coffees / lunch (please bring your own packed lunches) 1:30pm Brief introduction, followed by a talk by Regina Caeli Academy UK representative 2:30pm Coffee and cake 2:45pm Talk by the Trustees of the Bedfordshire RCA on how it works in practice 3:00pm Q&A’s, and next steps for interested parents
If you can, arrive earlier and attend our 11:00am Solemn High Mass (confessions from 10:30am). There is an other 6:00pm Sunday Mass.
There is a separate room to occupy the children. We’re aiming to get some help to entertain the children (tbc).
INTERCESSORESS: The Servant of God Elizabeth Prout, Foundress of the Sisters of the Cross and Passion (the female branch of Bl. Dominic Barberi’s Passionists in England), chose and founded St Mary’s school in Warrington. Our current building stands on the very footprint of the one she knew and where her order taught children from 1899 until 1967. Her order asks us to inform them of any favour received through her intercession. Let us ardently ask her for success for this initiative as we prepare for the bicentenary of her birth on 2nd September 2020.
CONCLUSION: The great step of the re-dedication of England to Our Lady of Walshingham on 29th March calls for renewed creativeness in Catholic education. Now is the time; 26 April is the date and St Mary’s the place. Please come, tell your friends, and pray. We look forward to meeting you soon.
CONTACT Shrine Rector: malleray@fssp.org
Next trek with Juventutem Young Adults (18-35): 18th April; 16th May. Contact helena.waddelove@hotmail.co.uk. Also, Juventutem Summer Weekend near London 3-5 July 2020. Also, CHARTRES Pilgrimage: 30th May-1st June 2020 with Frs de Malleray and Whisenant. Contact Pippa: pippajcurran97@gmail.com.
EDUCATION MEETING WARRINGTON Sunday 26 April 2020, 12:30pm-3:30pm St Mary’s Church, Buttermarket Street, Warrington WA1 2NS FREE church car parks accessed via Smith Street and Buttermarket Street
WHAT: A number of families meet weekly at St Mary’s Shrine in Warrington for half a day of educational activities (about 25 children). In addition to this, we have been observing with interest the formation of the Regina Caeli Academy (RCA) in Bedfordshire over the past 18 months and have invited them to present their educational model in Warrington. With a spacious building just acquired next to our church, we now actively welcome educational initiatives and we pray God that we may answer them very soon.
WHO: Anyone with interest in education is welcome to attend. This includes not only parents wishing to support such an academy in Warrington, but also home educators eager to compare their methods with the RCA ones, parents whose children are in full time school education and are curious to hear what RCA can bring, as well as benefactors open to funding reliable Catholic education.
AHEAD: The innocence of our children is in danger. Next autumn, even Catholic schools will have young children subjected to lessons on sexuality delivered in a way which is very likely to harm their innocent souls and twist their understanding of natural law, while depriving their parents of their inalienable rights as their primary educators. Even if this concern did not exist, the fact that most teenagers educated in Catholic schools lapse demonstrates enough that more must be done to teach and form the next generations of Catholics.
BUT: Many parents agree with this assessment, but feel they can’t home educate, though. They don’t have the training, the time, the resources. They fear that home education might hinder socialising their children. They doubt whether home education would enable their children to enter the universities and get good jobs.
ASK: Regina Caeli [https://www.rcahybrid.org.uk/] is a private, independent tutoring centre operating in the Catholic tradition. It offers two full days of taught lessons in school (Mondays and Thursdays) and lesson plans for three days of lessons taught at home, for boys and girls aged 4-18. The two taught days comprise the majority of academic work and there is significant support for the homeschooling element. The organisation has grown rapidly since its launch in 2003, now operating in 16 locations in the United States (with 8 more in planning) and, of course, now also in Bedfordshire in the UK.
Regina Caeli is a response to the need for affordable, authentic, classical education taught in light of the Catholic tradition. Its primary goal is to aid the students in knowing, loving, and serving God by providing them with a “classical style” of education so they learn how to think critically and become life-long learners. The mission is both educational and apostolic combining high educational standards with faithful adherence to the Magisterium of the Church.
Leaders of Regina Caeli UK will give a presentation about the hybrid academy and answer any questions families may have.
TIMETABLE: 12:30pm Teas and coffees / lunch (please bring your own packed lunches) 1:30pm Brief introduction, followed by a talk by Regina Caeli Academy UK representative 2:30pm Coffee and cake 2:45pm Talk by the Trustees of the Bedfordshire RCA on how it works in practice 3:00pm Q&A’s, and next steps for interested parents
If you can, arrive earlier and attend our 11:00am Solemn High Mass (confessions from 10:30am). There is an other 6:00pm Sunday Mass.
There is a separate room to occupy the children. We’re aiming to get some help to entertain the children (tbc).
INTERCESSORESS: The Servant of God Elizabeth Prout, Foundress of the Sisters of the Cross and Passion (the female branch of Bl. Dominic Barberi’s Passionists in England), chose and founded St Mary’s school in Warrington. Our current building stands on the very footprint of the one she knew and where her order taught children from 1899 until 1967. Her order asks us to inform them of any favour received through her intercession. Let us ardently ask her for success for this initiative as we prepare for the bicentenary of her birth on 2nd September 2020.
CONCLUSION: The great step of the re-dedication of England to Our Lady of Walshingham on 29th March calls for renewed creativeness in Catholic education. Now is the time; 26 April is the date and St Mary’s the place. Please come, tell your friends, and pray. We look forward to meeting you soon.
New Video on ‘Parents as Heroes and Saints’ by Fr de Malleray:
[Summary by Juventutem London:] On the feast of St. Anthony the Abbot, Fr De Malleray, FSSP, begins his homily by reflecting on the family. To be a parent and spouse in contemporary culture is heroic. It is a historic time for antagonism against the family and yet God loves families. He created the first family. Reflecting on the Holy Family inspires us of this truth. God decided to belong to a family. The second person of the Trinity, became the son of a woman, Our Lady, and the foster son of St. Joseph. From the beginning of our race, God expressed His will that humanity should be propagated through family. The first end of marriage is procreation and education of children. The second end of marriage is mutual support of the spouses. Parents have the glorious task of assisting God with populating heaven with new worshippers of the most Holy Trinity. This means not only to beget children but also to raise children to love God. The proof of a successful Christian education is the good example of virtue and the assistance lent by children to their parents and neighbours in need. So families are our heroes; because God wants families. But the world hates families. The world wants to take control of the family, of parents, of children. Why? Because the family as willed by God is the best school of sanctification for children and adults in the world. The world, being inimical to God, wants to control every man and every woman as if God did not exist. Family is the core cell of society. Christian families are domestic churches. Families are where children learn to lead life in common, to share, to listen, to obey, to trust, to serve, to love. Nowhere better than in the family can virtue be acquired. This in turn benefits society at large. Happy and stable families bring balanced and helpful itizens into the world. On the contrary, when families are weak or broken, then addiction, suicide, violence and crime increase. Fr then affirms a truth that soon, could be criminalised: parents are the primary educators of their children. They have this responsibility by natural right since they begot them. The state or any other institution, may assist the parents in the education of the children – but it must be the parent who decides if so. The state has no right to force “eduction” upon children against the parents’ will, especially sexual perversion classes. The state and other institutions may step in to provide for the children’ education if the parents cannot, yet always respecting natural law and divine law. Parental rights: the confiscation of the parental right by the state is the necessary bent of godless societies. This confiscation has been tried and implemented by every tyranny, but most successfully in recent times. Communism, Nazism, and now Hedonist Relativism. On the contrary, healthy families make prosperous countries.
Some examples of what a state worthy of the name should do: Firstly, in its duty to families, the state must provide adequate housing; every family is entitled to own a house. Second: the state must facilitate the transition of the family home from one generation to the next, by not claiming inheritance tax. Thirdly, society must accept that women cannot be replaced in nurturing life and in making the home a place of peace, order, and happiness. This is essential to ordering a society towards salvation. We are bound for eternity, but family life is our best preparation for a happy eternity with God. The supreme service women in the world can give to humanity is fostering life. It has been a great success of cultural communism to persuade the Western world that housewives are a waste. To achieve this lie, the godless have used cinema, literature, sociology, and the parliaments, to powerful effect. The truth is that mothers in the homes are queens. Women raising their children are heroines. Wives investing all they energies and skills into shaping new children of God are among the greatest benefactresses of mankind. Fourth: the authority of the husband and father must be upheld and praised, as described by St. Paul. “He must love his wife as Christ loved the Church and gave Himself for her.” Fr then mentions a recently released film A Hidden Life, which depicts an authentically-lived Catholic manhood. Fifth: marriage must be protected by law as a permanent and exclusive bond of fidelity between a man and woman in order to raise children. Sixth: pornography, contraception, abortion, surrogacy, IVF, must be curbed and ultimately disappear as contrary to the dignity of men and women, of parents, and of society. Fr then quotes from Pope Francis on the family, highlighting its place in the Christian life.
Fr concludes points out that he has been addressing these issues from the perspective of civil society – but ultimately it is about grace and eternity. Securing a natural order benefits the supernatural order. Strong families make strong countries – and strong countries, inspired by the Catholic faith, prepare a blessed eternity with God. This is what we must all have in mind when praying before the crib and while praying for families. Indeed, individual families are cherished units of the larger family of God, that is, His Holy Church. In the “Hanc Igitur” prayer, the celebrant refers to the Church as the family of God. Fr finishes the sermon by inviting those who might be called to family to beg the Holy Family to inspire, to guide, to heal, and sanctify a;l families. This way parents will not only be heroes, but with their children, they will be saints.
(St Thomas Aquinas, the greatest Doctor of the Church)
Preparation Courses for First
Holy Communion (to
be conferred on Corpus Christi Sunday, 14th June, 11am) and for Confirmation (to be conferred
on Sat. 18th July, 3pm by Archbishop McMahon of Liverpool). Both courses will begin on 15th
March and every following Sunday 9:45am-10:45am.
1) For
First Holy Communion course, please contact roger.gilbride@fssp.org as soon as
possible if you want (or your child) to be included.
2) For
Confirmation course, please contact henrywhiz@hotmail.com
as soon as possible. Confirmation candidates from outside the Liverpool
Archdiocese are welcome with a statement of due preparation from their pastor. Please note: we reserve the right to
postpone admission to either sacrament if a candidate has missed sessions
and is not ready to receive.
[Updated on 4th March 2020:] Our Lenten Shrine community alms this year will go to Cenacolo, a community helping people suffering from addictions. Pray for the work of the Cenacolo Community and the individuals and their families that need help to ‘walk from the darkness of addiction’ to healing through God’s Love and Grace.
Please donate cash in envelopes clearly labelled ‘Cenacolo’. Please note: FSSP Warrington is exclusively responsible for this initiative and will personally transfer the amount collected to the Cenacolo Community as a Lenten offering from our Shrine community to Cenacolo UK. The only valid contact details for Cenacolo UK are available on their website: https://cenacolouk.org/.
First Women’s Group Meeting, Sat. 7th March, 1pm: After (optional) 10am-12noon
adoration and 12:10pm Holy Mass, bring and share packed lunch to Shrine Hall,
followed by talk by Fr Henry Whisenant.
Any
women from 18 to 118 welcome!
Brand new Baronius hand missals
for only £35.00
each! St Mary’s Shrine being such a good customer, Baronius Press granted us a
major discount on their public price of £53.95 + shipping
(https://www.amazon.co.uk/Daily-Missal-1962-Baronius-Press/dp/0954563123). Hand
your £35 in cash to a priest and he
will give you your precious new hand missal. Make sure to stick a large label
with your name on the outside cover of the missal (and inside as well), as
about 100 other copies are used at St Mary’s.
St Patrick’s Party, Tuesday 17th
March: 6pm shared Irish dishes followed by 7pm film. Please bring some IRISH CHEESES,
SODA BREADS, DRINKS/WINES (email roger.gilbride@fssp.org to find out where you
can buy those). At 7pm, showing of the EWTN Film ‘Bravery Under Fire’ about the
life of Irish Fr William Doyle, SJ (90 mins). Fr Doyle is considered a ‘Martyr
of Charity’ as he died on the battlefield of Ypres in WWI rescuing wounded
soldiers (www.fatherdoyle.com).
New Video on ‘Parents as Heroes and Saints’ by Fr de Malleray:
Diocesan Safeguarding Training
session at St
Benedict’s Catholic Primary School, near St Benedict’s Church: at the end of
Quebec Road, WA2 7SB, Thursday 19th March, 7pm. Free. With the
participation of Frs Dave Heywood and Armand de Malleray FSSP.
Mass of Thanksgiving for Converts: Sat 21st March,12:10pm.
Any converts and their families and friends, especially those received or baptised at St Mary’s in the past four years, are heartily invited to attend this Mass and join our wider community in giving thanks to God for the gift of faith and of belonging to the Church. It will be an opportunity to meet with other converts. Adults under instruction to become Catholics or simply with interest in Catholicism are very welcome to attend as well. Please bring and share lunch in Shrine Hall at 1pm. Arrive earlier if you can for a time of Eucharistic Adoration in thanksgiving for the same intention, from 10am (with confessions).
Feast of the Annunciation, Wed 25th March: Low
Mass at 8:00am, Solemn Mass at 12:10pm; Low Mass at 7:00pm (exceptionally open
to ALL, before the usual 8pm Men’s Group talk).
The re-dedication of England by our bishops as Our Lady’s
dowry will take place at 12noon on Sunday, 29th March, 2020. St
Mary’s will host special events on that day.
Congratulations
to our parishioner Martin Turner and his fiancée Georgie Burrows, who were united in Holy
Matrimony by Archbishop Malcolm McMahon in Liverpool Cathedral on 28th
February. We assure them of our prayer.
Educational Initiative Regina Caeli Academy – coming soon to the North of
England!
Our new
Priory buildings give hope for increased educational opportunities at St
Mary’s. A meeting here will be announced soon for all those interested, most
likely on a Sunday afternoon.
Next trek with Juventutem Young Adults (18-35): 14th March: to Macclesfield. Meet us at St Mary’s at 10:30am (after optional 9:30am Trekkers’ Mass) or meet us traight at St Albans Catholic church, SK11 8DJ at 11:30am, bringing waterproof clothing and appropriate footwear. We will also have a pub lunch. (Further dates: 18th April; 16th May). Contact helena.waddelove@hotmail.co.uk.
Also, Juventutem Summer Weekend near London 3-5 July 2020.
Also, CHARTRES Pilgrimage: 30th May-1st June 2020 with Frs de Malleray and Whisenant. Contact Pippa: pippajcurran97@gmail.com.
